Black Pill Betting thread

[the mole]

I like the broncos +175 vs the falcons

broncos coming off some competent performances vs winning teams

falcons have played like pure trash this year

 

[6ft4]

I bet on Ravens to win which was even money, not sure how they were considered underdogs at one point
I also bet on Dolphins +6
Those were the 2 bets I had most confidence in
Of course I erased potential profit by betting on Seahawks when they went behind and bet on over 50pts in Buccs v Saints, was gonna cash out at 28-0 but thought Saints had another TD in the before halftime to make my cashout better, ended up not cashing out and losing

 

[the mole]

I bet on Ravens to win which was even money, not sure how they were considered underdogs at one point
I also bet on Dolphins +6
Those were the 2 bets I had most confidence in
Of course I erased potential profit by betting on Seahawks when they went behind and bet on over 50pts in Buccs v Saints, was gonna cash out at 28-0 but thought Saints had another TD in the before halftime to make my cashout better, ended up not cashing out and losing

the nfl has been a shitshow lately

chiefs almost losing

things of that nature

I'm gonna close out parlays on the patriots and I have it hedged so I win 100 either way

 

[6ft4]

Bet on Titans moneyline tonight, even money which I think is good value, they've been made the underdogs for some reason

 

[LookismMod2020]

Do you live in Vegas?

If you make all your money off betting, would moving to Vegas not be a bad idea?

 

[the mole]

Do you live in Vegas?

If you make all your money off betting, would moving to Vegas not be a bad idea?

websites have max bet sizes

so when I get above betting like 2000 on a single bet then I'd need to use a casino probably

in reality though you can bet 2000 on a bunch of sites, maybe over 10 sites if you wanted to

so your bet size would have to be over 20000 taking that into account

 

[the mole]

I'm simming madden games 25 times per matchup

some of the lines are just completely fucked and off by margins of like 3/1 reality vs -115 odds

I presume I'll make a lot more money as my bet sizes are 50 default now

I'm basically back to where I was before I threw 3000 away on that stupid ass live bet

despite simming each matchup 25 times I lost like 5 or 6 3/1s and 4/1s in the past week as well as a 24/1 I had 100 dollars on

still up close to 1000 for the month

best of luck

 

[superbad]

I'm simming madden games 25 times per matchup

some of the lines are just completely fucked and off by margins of like 3/1 reality vs -115 odds

I presume I'll make a lot more money as my bet sizes are 50 default now

I'm basically back to where I was before I threw 3000 away on that stupid ass live bet

Why do you adjust betsize based on expected value?

 

[the mole]

Why do you adjust betsize based on expected value?

if I'm betting on a 3/1 simmed odds

and the odds are only -115

that's massive value

it doesn't make sense to limit my bets

assuming I have like 6000-7000 or so money to work with

I'm losing huge profits if I don't bet 50 every time and 50 feels safe to me and gets me the profit I want

if it's 24/1 at -115 that's massive value I'll put like 100-200 on it and might parlay it

 

[the mole]

also

I can't say this enough

bookies make mistakes

they aren't perfect

I won 200 dollars on one such mistake today that wasn't even bad odds just a technical mistake by a moron inputting the odds

probably less likely for that to happen in real sports

that's the beauty of betting on a video game simulation

 

[superbad]

if I'm betting on a 3/1 simmed odds

and the odds are only -115

that's massive value

it doesn't make sense to limit my bets

assuming I have like 6000-7000 or so money to work with

I'm losing huge profits if I don't bet 50 every time and 50 feels safe to me and gets me the profit I want

if it's 24/1 at -115 that's massive value I'll put like 100-200 on it and might parlay it

I meant betting more when you have a bigger Edge etc.
But you seem to do it already
Nice Not Long and you have a nice Side income imo If you keep It Up
Do you have Problems with getting Limited on bookies?

 

[the mole]

I meant betting more when you have a bigger Edge etc.
But you seem to do it already
Nice Not Long and you have a nice Side income imo If you keep It Up
Do you have Problems with getting Limited on bookies?

no problems with limits really

when I'm able to bet like 2k and am butchering them like that then they might limit me to like 500

people in chat talk about that

yea I bet more with a bigger edge but it isn't directly correlated to the edge

like a 3/1 edge I'll still bet 50 as if I had a 2/1 edge or a 4/1 edge

I'll incrementally bet more

say I have a 5/1 edge or more I might go 100 on a -200 ml, or just 50 if odds are -115, 10/1 to 20/1 edge on a -115 100-200 usually the max I'll go

 

[the mole]

btw the live betting bullshit free money strat is basically dead

maybe once a week it will come up

rip

but it's been replaced with a dopey fuck that fucks up the over under by 10 points at halftime so it's all g honestly

 

[the mole]

doing well

 

[the mole]

honestly I don't even want to take 2/1 odds anymore

really only 3/1 excites me

 

[Saen]

Still gooing?

 

[the mole]

Still gooing?

indeed

7 days a week

 

[Saen]

indeed

7 days a week

What I don't understand is how you apply real life knowledge to a Madden simulation. The simulations are limited to the variables assigned to players and the game mechanics. You keep describing team dynamics IRL which probably aren't even inputs in the simulation.

 

[the mole]

What I don't understand is how you apply real life knowledge to a Madden simulation.

 

[Saen]

Aren't there some things which aren't coded into the simulation? For example you use the fact that some teams have been having a great season, but obviously something like momentum isn't an input in the simulation.